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Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Oct 2 2022 5:02 pm


 

Day 1

D4Wednesday Oct 5 2022 - Thursday Oct 6 2022 D7Saturday Oct 8 2022 - Sunday Oct 9 2022
D5Thursday Oct 6 2022 - Friday Oct 7 2022 D8Sunday Oct 9 2022 - Monday Oct 10 2022
D6Friday Oct 7 2022 - Saturday Oct 8 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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